Monday was Groundhog Day and, if we’re to believe a certain furry Pennsylvania resident, he forecasts six more weeks of winter. On the other hand, rival prognosticator woodchucks elsewhere in the U.S. offered more up-beat assessments. Similarly, economists stand divided as to where the U.S. economy is headed. They use somewhat more sophisticated forecasting tools than mere shadow gazing, but in many cases the accuracy of their pronouncements are no better than Punxsutawney Phil and his burrowing cousins. So who are you to believe?

Last Friday the U.S. Commerce Department reported that Gross Domestic Product in the fourth quarter came in at a 2.6 percent annualized rate, down sharply from the 5 percent expansion in the third quarter. More fuel was seemingly added to the fire when we learned that personal spending fell by 0.3 percent in December, the biggest drop since September, 2009. Furthermore, the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index for manufacturing came in below expectations and at a one-year low, the shortfall attributed to the stronger dollar and economic weakness abroad.

Sounds like real trouble is brewing, doesn’t it? While the U.S. economy has undeniably slowed in recent months, however, it would be premature to write its obituary just yet.

Consider that while personal spending slowed last month, the drop arrived at least in part at the heels of a decline in gasoline and heating fuel costs, far from a bad thing. What’s more, real or inflation-adjusted personal incomes rose in December, by 0.5 percent, month over month. That was up from an increase of 0.4 percent in November and a 0.3 percent pick-up in September. In other words, real income growth is actually accelerating, a trend that should persist with improving labor market conditions. With consumer confidence at a seven-year high, we expect shoppers to keep reaching for their wallets in 2015.

So while some of the recent data shows a cooler trend and the strong dollar and lower oil prices take a toll on corporate profits this quarterly reporting season,  you can likely shrug off any talk of looming recession. The economy will probably stay on track for at least 2 to 3 percent annualized growth in the coming months. In other words, we’re back to what we’ve become accustomed to throughout much of the current expansion.

That kind of growth does warrant some caution, as an unforeseen event could send the economy off the rails. And while stocks could generate only tepid results this year in light of relatively sluggish growth and high overall valuations, select companies are executing quite well these days and should continue to do so.

Far more exciting than groundhog weather predictions this week and, for many, scanning quarterly corporate results, was the Super Bowl. Just for fun, we looked at how the stock market fared following each of the three previous New England Patriots victories, in 2002, 2004 and 2005. That perhaps, the Lombardy Trophy coming to New England somehow spurred investors to buy. And indeed, in each of those years the S&P 500 produced positive returns, of 28.7 percent, 10.9 percent and 4.9 percent, respectively. A pessimist, however, would note that the margin of those gains steadily narrowed and if the trend held, 2015 could be iffy.

Of course there’s no need to remind you that basing investment decisions on the outcome of a sporting event is a fool’s game. We’ll stick with good old fashioned fundamental analysis. And on that score we remain cautiously optimistic for 2015.