Making the Best of the Average Situation

Friday, February 13, 2015
by Genia Turanova

Although most U.S. investors know about a method called dollar cost averaging, not all practice it, despite its likelihood to both increase the probability of investment success and fight the market’s inherent uncertainties.

Effectively, dollar cost averaging sets a schedule to buy, as well as the sum to invest, i.e. to regularly purchase a fixed dollar amount of a particular investment, regardless what shares cost at the predetermined time of purchase. By definition, that also means investors obtain more shares when prices are low, and fewer shares when prices are high.

And that is the beauty of the idea. The risk diminishes of getting in, all at once, at a high price, and then watching the whole position go kaflooey.

Another benefit is to diminish the risk of not getting in at all. Also known as a “constant dollar plan,” the dollar cost averaging investment method additionally forces a skittish—or market-timing—investor into the water. Ultimately, sitting on the sidelines for too long, or at the wrong moments, can prove disastrous to an investor’s financial health.

The method can be well-applied in the purchase of mutual funds. Some may have higher required initial investment hurdles for taxable accounts than for investors who sign up for a regular monthly deposit of $100 or $200, for example, and can especially benefit young people just starting out, who do not have a large lump sum to invest, in any case. Moreover, mutual funds spread your investment into a diversified portfolio, further adding to the benefits of the method.

For mutual fund investors, another added plus is the potential to reinvest all dividends and capital gains (and we advise that you take advantage), to add another level of dollar cost averaging to the primary monthly (or other periodic) scheduled investments and thus compound your gains.

Over time, this investment method should reduce the average cost per share of securities or mutual funds. An investor making a monthly $100 investment in shares that, say, cost $40 in March, fall to $30 in April and then drop to $25 would get 2.5 shares the first month, 3.3 shares in April and 4 shares in May, for an average of $30.51 per share. Dollar cost averaging effectively lowers the price of the shares overall.

Does that mean that dollar cost averaging will always work to an investor’s advantage over, say, investing a lump sum up front? No.

In fact, in a 2012 Vanguard study, thousands of simulations from 1926 through 2012 showed that in the U.S., U.K. and Australia, lump sum investments of $1 million and $20 million, generally produced far better results if made up front than if dribbled into the market over time. Two thirds of the time, investors who put their entire boodle to work on the first day did better than those who invested over a year.

That study has two problems, however. Most people don’t have a $1 million lump sum to invest up front, much less $20 million. Moreover, in addition to producing gains, dollar cost averaging can significantly reduce risks (including the opportunity risk, or the risk of staying underinvested). And, of course, if the stock market tends to go up over time, the earlier you get in, the better you are off—as the study seems to indicate.

In other words, the average Joe or Jane almost certainly stands better equipped to invest via dollar cost averaging than by trying to save enough to invest big lump sums all at once. Regardless of the course the stock market takes, dollar cost averaging brings discipline into investing. Plus, there is a lot to be said for risk reduction.

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