The U.S. stock market is riding a rollercoaster at the moment. Even intraday trading looks like a fast-moving ride at the fun fair. However dizzying it may seem though, it would be wise not to panic or let seasickness overcome you.
The market averages dropped significantly in reaction to disappointing economic data—but not without substantive moves up and down in between as the benchmarks recovered some of the heaviest losses. All said, however, shares that comprise the large-cap S&P 500 index are down about 7 percent since their September 18 peak.
Let’s face it: growth jitters are the main culprit. For instance, manufacturing numbers in the state of New York missed expectations, and retail sales posted a decline for the first time in eight months.
In Europe, growth expectations are dismal. Nevertheless, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Christian Democratic Union leaders that her government would remain committed to a balanced budget goal. No surprise therefore that German bonds rose strongly and the yield on the 10-year German Bunds declined to a record low 0.78 percent. A 2-year bund now sells at a negative (-0.06 percent) yield.
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said in a Bloomberg interview that the U.S. Fed should consider delaying the ending of QE. Generally one of the more “hawkish” members of the central bank, Bullard’s “dovish” position is justified by the slowing economy in Europe and declining inflation expectations here in the U.S.
Earlier this week, the markets heard from another regional Federal Reserve Bank president when San Francisco’s John Williams suggested that interest rates could be held at near zero past the middle of 2015, when current expectations foresee an increase in the overnight lending rates.
“If inflation isn’t moving above 1.5 (percent) and we get stuck into that gear, that would argue for a later liftoff,” Williams told Reuters Tuesday concerning a possible interest rate hike. “If we don’t see any improvement in wages, that would be a sign that we still have a lot of slack in the economy and we are not getting any inflationary pressure to move inflation back to 2 percent.” Williams also makes a case for still more extraordinary stimulus measures.
Will we see QE4? It’s possible, considering the success of QE1, 2, and 3, and the current state of the world economy. In the meantime, it’s a wait-and-see proposition for the market.
Stephen Leeb, Ph.D.
Alyssa Lappen, Managing Editor
Kuen (Scott) Chan, Contributing Editor
Greg Dorsey, Contributing Editor
Genia Turanova, CFA, Contributing Editor
Donna Leeb, Editor