The U.S. economy is undergoing a significant transition—from consumer-driven to trade-driven. The shift puts the spotlight on two sectors: transportation and infrastructure, both critical to support the burgeoning trade between the U.S. and other nations.
From World War II on, consumer buying propelled growth, accelerating from about 60 percent of GDP in the late 1960s to a high near 70 percent early this decade. This, however, will likely mark the peak for a long time to come as the remnants of the baby boom generation march past the age of 50, typically when personal consumption starts to level off and drop.
Transportation and infrastructure, which are closely interrelated, stand ready to pick up the mantle. So far transportation, the much smaller of the two, has raced to the lead. But the growing demand for commercial transportation increasingly will highlight the urgent need to upgrade infrastructure ranging from bridges to barges to the electric grid.
The surge in commercial transportation has been fueled by the explosive growth of trade in the U.S., both exports and imports. Give the lion’s share of the credit to other world economies. Their growth has led to rising demand for U.S. products while boosting Americans’ appetite for the goods those economies produce more cheaply than we do. It’s a virtuous circle that further enhances global growth, resulting in even more trade.
And trade—delivering and receiving goods—requires trains and trucks. That’s why transportation stocks have been outperforming consumer stocks, something that marks a notable sea change in the status of the transports. U.S. growth during the past decade and a half has been historically low, which in the past would have sent the traditionally cyclical transports into a tailspin. But no longer: transports have been leading the market and are poised to continue to do so.
These trends ultimately could result in a lot of macro benefits for the U.S., including greater energy efficiency and better infrastructure. In one of our latest issues of The Complete Investor, we focus on how investors can benefit by scooping up transportation stocks with the greatest potential.
Stephen Leeb, Ph.D.
Alyssa Lappen, Managing Editor
Kuen (Scott) Chan, Contributing Editor
Greg Dorsey, Contributing Editor
Genia Turanova, CFA, Contributing Editor
Donna Leeb, Editor