A significant event occurred last week that went largely unnoticed as most eyes were focused on the big day-to-day swings in share prices.

Oil prices spiked immediately after the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly oil market report, which showed an unexpectedly large draw in inventories. Those draws suggest that growth in this country remains robust going into the fourth quarter. And all things being equal, the report might have marked the end of a three-month slide in crude prices. But it was not long before the market reversed course and headed south again. Now, just a few days later, oil prices are down another 4 percent.

The catalyst for this reversal came from Saudi Arabia, which cut the price of oil for Asian delivery for the fourth consecutive month. Saudi doesn’t just sell at the market price. Instead, each month they price their Arab light oil at a premium or discount to the benchmark Oman/Dubai average. November shipments will be priced at $1 less than October’s official price, a discount of $1.05 a barrel to the Oman/Dubai average.

Now the Jeddah oil sheiks hold their cards close to their thawbs, so to speak, leaving it up to others to discern their motives.

It could be, as has been widely speculated, the Saudis simply want to maintain market share in light of weakening global demand. But this theory looks seriously flawed to us.

If they worried about deteriorating market conditions, the Saudis, as they have in the past, could just unilaterally reduce production ahead of the November OPEC oil ministers meeting in Vienna. That would most likely stem the price slide and let them use their influence to get other OPEC members to follow suit at the cartel’s upcoming confab. This time, they chose not to.

Moreover, demand for petroleum in Asia, and China in particular, continues to rise. While Europe may be merely skirting its third recession in five years, there’s no slackening in the number of crude cargoes heading east, where the Kingdom now sells most of its oil. Further, you’d have to be blind, deaf and dumb not to think that world economic growth, if there is any, will come from the East not the West, thus any market share loss would be ephemeral.

Another possibility is that the Saudis want to kick Russia while it’s down. Russia is an important backer of Iran and is aiding Tehran’s bid to acquire nuclear power and, it’s feared, nuclear weapons. Though both are Islamic countries, the Saudis are Sunni adherents while the Iranians are Shia. Each denomination considers the other apostates in a schism that dates to the early days of the religion’s inception following the death of Muhammad. The last thing the Saudis want is for Iran to get the bomb, which it could use as leverage throughout the Middle East, thereby demoting Saudi Arabia and Sunnis in general to second-rate status.

Russia is also the patron of the Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, whom Saudi would like to see ousted.

Oil revenue accounts for about a half of Russia’s exports and 40 percent of the government’s revenue, so lower prices are a real threat to Moscow and could theoretically hamper its ability to fund its client states. Western sanctions that have targeted Russia’s oil industry might, at first blush, make this seem like a good time to apply pressure to Russia. But given what we know of Vladimir Putin, such pressure is just as likely to cause Moscow to step up its support for Iran and Syria.

Equally important, Saudi relies even more heavily on oil revenue to fund its massive social programs and safeguard its oil fields. Reducing prices would therefore seem like the Royal family was cutting off their nose to spite their face. This is especially true given intense ISIS efforts to recruit dissatisfied Sunnis, of which many exist in the highly fractured Saudi economy.

A third possibility, which no one seems to have considered, may indeed cause the Saudis short-term pain but could benefit them exceedingly in the long run. Rather than targeting their enemies, the Saudis may intend to harm their “friends” in America.

The U.S. is poised to overtake the Saudis this year as the world’s largest oil producer, thanks to the impressive gains in output from shale plays like North Dakota’s Bakken and Texas’ Eagle Ford. Nearly 4.9 million barrels a day of tight oil are now being pumped, up from little more than 1 million barrels just a few years ago. This is the biggest threat to the Saudis’ livelihood.

We don’t think the timing of the latest Saudi price cut was coincidental, coming just days after the first U.S. oil export shipment departed Alaska in more than a decade, an 800,000 barrel ConocoPhillips cargo bound for South Korea. A Citigroup analyst dubbed that tanker the first in what it “expects to become an armada” heading to Asia. Several other companies have obtained licenses to ship oil from the Lower 48 and more will doubtless follow.

The complexities that employ miles of directional drilling and multi stages of hydraulic fracturing make this a very expensive oil production method. Furthermore, steep production decline rates mean new wells must constantly be drilled to maintain a given level of output.

If the Saudis drive prices lower, it will make new shale wells, frequently unprofitable even at $100 a barrel, all the more uneconomical. This would cause  drilling rigs to get “stacked” and ultimately, reduce output from American oil fields. And having been burned, U.S. producers will be slow to get new rigs turning once more. Moreover, once oil has been shut in, it could be very difficult to get it out again. This was the case after the Iran-Iraq war, after which Iran’s productive capacity never returned to its previous levels. Keeping this competition off the market will lead to higher prices and more revenue for the Saudis in the long run.