While U.S. oil production keeps climbing, it’s clear that even if, as the fracking bulls predict, we become the world’s largest oil producer, it won’t make us energy-independent.

Fracking optimists argue we can boost production by 2 million or even 3 million barrels a day. Even if true, however—and we doubt it—we’d still be well short of what we need. That’s because, by a monster margin, we’re the world’s biggest consumers of oil, and the largest gains foreseen by the bulls wouldn’t suffice to meet our demand.

Morever, the cost of the additional barrels produced from fracking is likely to rise as growing inputs of energy are needed once the more accessible supplies have been tapped. It’s the kind of vicious circle we’ve seen since the mid-2000s, with gas prices rising despite negative demand growth. (Speaking of which, as larger cars become more in vogue, gasoline demand is rising a bit, too.)

For now oil prices seem range bound and will likely remain so assuming the Ukrainian and Iraqi situation stays under control and do not escalate into regional conflicts. But as the Saudi oil minister recently said, range is good for OPEC and the world, as it means the price of producing fracked oil will likely be the oil price floor. And if, as we noted above, those prices rise with increasing production, we are the proverbial frog being slowly boiled. I.e., given that a decline in oil production from fracking is inevitable—whether in 18 months, which is our guess, but even in 30 months or more—we are still cooked without an all-out effort to build an alternative energy infrastructure.

We have an appointment in Samarra, but unlike the unfortunate servant in that tale, we may still be able to cancel it. Meanwhile, our Master Key remains bullish, indicating any market setback won’t turn into a nasty bear debacle.